Forecasting economic activity from yield curve factors

This paper provides clear-cut evidence that the slope and curvature factors of the term structure of interest rates (yield curve) contain more information about future changes in economic activity than the term spread itself, often used in the literature as a predictive regressor of economic activity. These two factors reflect different information about future economic activity, which is smoothed out by the term spread. The paper shows that the slope factor has predictive power on future economic activity over longer horizons ahead, and thus may be interpreted as reflecting future business cycle conditions. On the other hand, the curvature factor, which enters the term spread with opposite sign than the slope factor, has predictive power on shorter movements of future economic activity which may be associated with changes in the current stance of monetary policy. These results hold for a number of world developed economies.     

Exploiting commodity momentum along the futures curves

This study examines novel momentum strategies in commodities futures markets that incorporate term-structure information. We show that momentum strategies that invest in contracts on the futures curve with the largest expected roll-yield or the strongest momentum earn significantly higher risk-adjusted returns than a traditional momentum strategy, which only invests in the nearest contracts. Moreover, when incorporating conservative transaction costs we observe that our low-turnover momentum strategy more than doubles the net return compared to a traditional momentum strategy.     

服装三维与试衣软件系统的研究

本论文通过对几款服装三维试衣软件和在线试衣软件进行试用,同时对软件的基本功能进行对比研究,结合一些使用客户的评价,从客户的角度提出软件在功能方面存在的问题以及改进意见。     

基于价值创新的江苏省民办高职院校发展战略研究

本文试图探索江苏省内民办高职院校如何借鉴运用价值创新战略以面对生源困境,不断改进提升其顾客价值。     

淮河流域的工业环境库兹涅茨曲线再检验——来自2005—2014年安徽省地级市面板数据

基于2005—2014年淮河流域安徽段8个地级市工业环境与经济相关统计数据，通过非参数Kernel函数估计描绘该区域人均GDP和工业污染排放物的动态演进过程，进而构建淮河流域环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)模型，考察淮河流域生态环境质量变迁与经济增长的关系。研究表明:该区域的经济发展水平整体处于上升阶段，随着时间推移地区之间差距拉大，而人均工业废水排放和人均工业废气排放的核密度估计分布图存在一定的相似性；人均工业废气排放量与人均GDP呈现线性关系，人均工业废水排放量和人均工业固体废弃物排放量与人均GDP之间均表现出正“U”型二次曲线关系，与典型的EKC曲线特征不是完全符合，安徽淮河流域大部分地区仍然处于随经济发展而生态环境不断恶化阶段。     

Open Market Operation Effectiveness in China

This paper examines the effectiveness of target rate guidance in open market operation by the central bank in China (PBOC). We find that target rate change in open market operation is effective in adjusting the short-term Treasury rates. The target rate changing direction is more effective than the target rate changing level. There is no significant asymmetry in the effectiveness between the target rate increase and target rate decrease. We also document that the effectiveness of the target rate is conditional on liquidity operation of the same direction, especially when they both aim to loosen the monetary policy. Furthermore, consecutive operations with higher intensity appear to be more effective in adjusting the market interest rate.     

Fitting room or selling room? Millennial female consumers’ dressing room experiences

As retail experiences have become more important to the modern consumer, the store environment has taken on greater significance. The store environment is especially of great significance to the millennial consumer. These consumers tend to spend more time in the fashion retail store, while their expenditure on fashion items increases on a yearly basis. The dressing room must be seen as the clothing retailer's selling room – the place where the retail environment plays an immense role with regard to a consumer's cognitions, emotions and purchasing behaviour. The purpose of this study was to explore and describe young millennial clothing consumers' Functional, aesthetic, emotional and symbolic dressing room experiences. A qualitative research strategy was followed. Two unstructured interviews were held with 15 participants. Participants had to take photos of retailers' dressing rooms before the second interview. A photo‐elicitation technique was employed during the second interview. Findings revealed that participants had specific expectations with regard to the functionality and aesthetics of the dressing room, as well as with regard to the symbolic messages and the emotions that they expected to experience. If the dressing room did not meet their expectations they got disappointed, experienced negative emotions and thoughts and the need to leave the dressing room. The behavioural response of avoidance strongly came to the forth. Findings of this research point to the importance of the dressing room as part of the retail experience and have implications for consumer specialists and retailers.     

The international diversification-performance link in Spain: Does firm size really matter?

This study provides new insights into the link between international diversification and firm performance in a sample of large manufacturing firms and SMEs based in Spain for the 1994–2008 period. Specifically, the focus is on how the nature and shape of this relationship may vary over time with firm size. The results show the existence of a horizontal-S curve when the whole sample of firms is considered in the empirical analysis. However, major differences are found between SMEs and large firms, and even within the actual group of SMEs. Strong support is found in large firms for the existence of a horizontal-S curve. Within the group of SMEs, there are small firms with a linear and negative relationship, whereas medium-sized firms record a U-shaped form. These findings suggest that as the international diversification-performance link is size-dependent, future research should explicitly consider firm size in order to better understand the nature of this relationship.     

Could the Faustmann model have an interior minimum solution?

The growth of an even-aged stand usually follows a S-shaped pattern, implying that the growth function is convex when stand age is low and concave when stand age is high. Given such a growth function, the Faustmann model could in theory have multiple optima and hence an interior local minimum solution. To ensure that the rotation age at which the first derivative of the land expectation value equals zero is a maximum, it is often assumed that the growth function is concave in stand age. Yet there is no convincing argument for excluding the possibility of conducting the final harvest before the growth function changes to concave. We argue that under normal circumstances the Faustmann model does not have any interior minimum. It is neither necessary nor proper to assume that the growth function is concave in the vicinity of the optimal rotation age. When the interest rate is high, the optimal rotation may lie in the interval on which the growth function is convex, i.e. before volume or value growth culminates.     

全球海运铁矿石市场承压解析与行业影响

世界钢产量峰期出现在2000年以后,其高速增长动力主要来源于中国,而中国铁矿石原矿资源禀赋的劣势,愈发刺激了中国对国际海运铁矿石的需求,致使中国铁矿石需求的对外依存度较高,与此同时,作为铁矿石纯进口国的中国难以主导铁矿石定价权。2011年国际铁矿石市场正值高位运行,大部分铁矿石生产商在高价驱使下,选择大幅增加投资成本扩建产能,海运铁矿石市场供需基本面开始倒转。2015年以来,铁矿石中国到岸价大幅下跌,铁矿石生产巨头由于低廉的现金生产成本也只能勉强盈利或者维持在盈亏平衡线附近,高成本矿被实质性挤压出局。而美国量化宽松政策收紧乃至退出,导致金融流动性降低,进一步巩固了全球铁矿石市场"供强需弱"的格局。由于国内高成本铁矿项目的退出,中国铁矿石需求对外依存度将会进一步升高。